Is my idea validated, or am I hearing what I want?
Founders drown in encouragement and mistake it for proof. This ledger weights your evidence by how much it actually means — a stranger's payment counts many times more than a friend's compliment — and gives you a calibrated confidence band, flags for the biases creeping in, and the one thing that would move your confidence most.
Log your evidence
Count distinct instances. Ten friends saying "cool idea" is still just friendly noise; one stranger's deposit is signal. Saved in your browser only.
Evidence against
Confidence
The bar is the confidence; the range reflects how thin the evidence still is. Thin evidence = wide range, no matter how positive.
What's biasing you
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Why weight evidence at all?
"The Mom Test" made the point that people lie to you to be nice — especially people who like you. So counting all feedback equally rewards you for talking to friends and punishes nothing. Ledger maps weighted evidence onto a Beta posterior: strong, skin-in-the-game signals from strangers move confidence a lot; talk moves it a little; and until enough independent strangers have weighed in, it refuses to call anything validated. See the self-tests.